Brazil is Quietly Winning the Trade War

Since Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs announcement, the stock market's been throwing more curves than a rookie pitcher. We've seen rips, dips, and everything in between. If you're feeling like you're getting whiplash trying to keep up, you're not alone.

But politics aside, markets are doing what they always do: pricing in the future. One place that's quietly been crushing it? Brazil. Year-to-date, the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) has smoked the S&P 500. The setup looks good, and it's not just about adding international flair to your portfolio — some of these charts are screaming "opportunity."

Here are four Brazilian setups you should have on your radar:

1. EWZ (iShares MSCI Brazil ETF)

We've got a textbook case of polarity here. Horizontal resistance meets diagonal resistance right at a clean base. This makes risk management easy: above $27, you're long. The initial target is $29. If it can't stay above $27, you walk away. No drama.

2. ITUB (Itau Unibanco Holding S.A.)

ITUB has been quietly grinding higher inside a bullish channel on the weekly chart ever since the Covid lows in 2020. Right now, it's pushing against trendline resistance. If it can clear $6.35, it's got room to stretch up to $7. Not a moonshot, but in this market, steady is sexy.

3. NU (Nu Holdings Ltd.)

NU has a massive gap to fill up to $13.30, and it's currently right at the breakout levels after breaking above and holding it’s ATH VWAP, Look for longs on the breakout, using that AVWAP as a trailing stop loss. Longer term? There's another juicy gap to fill at $15.63. Base formation is solid. Momentum is building.

4. BBD (Banco Bradesco S.A.)

BBD is grinding higher inside a bullish channel and just reclaimed the AVWAP from the ugly February 2024 gap down. It's testing the upper range now, so a pullback soon seems logical. There's a bearish gap to fill sitting at $2.28, lining up with Fibonacci support. It's a dip-buy candidate in the lower/mid section of the channel for a move back to the upper bounds of the channel. Earnings are around the corner so keep this in mind when positioning.

Bottom Line

You can sit around and argue trade policy if you want. The market already made up its mind. Brazil is getting the love. The setups are clean. The risk is manageable. Whether you're diversifying or just hunting good trades, keep these Brazilian names on your radar.

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