The Silent Ascent

There’s an old investing adage: “When everyone is looking left, sometimes the real move is happening to the right.” Right now, the financial world is fixated on Deepseek, Nvidia, and the latest AI drama. But while the market scrambles to price in the future of artificial intelligence, something far less talked about is quietly making history—Aerospace stocks, as tracked by the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA), just closed at a new all-time high.

As January Goes, So Goes the Market?

Not only that, but ITA has been outperforming gold, bonds, and the broader stock market (S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000) since the start of 2025. This isn’t just a blip—it could be a sign of something much bigger.

There’s an old Wall Street saying: “As January goes, so goes the year.” The idea is simple—market trends established in the first month often set the tone for the months ahead.

If that’s true, then ITA’s leadership so far in 2025 could mean that Aerospace & Defense stocks are gearing up to be one of the top-performing industries this year. And when you zoom out, the charts back up this thesis.

Big-Picture Strength: The Monthly Setup

Looking at the monthly chart, ITA is following a textbook bullish pattern. The long-term uptrend led to the formation of an ascending triangle—a classic continuation setup that suggests higher prices ahead. Right now, ITA is approaching its first bullish price target after successfully breaking out of that pattern.

If this leadership continues, we want to be looking for long opportunities in the space above $160, with an upside target of $224.

Zooming In: Relative Strength & A Potential Breakout

On the daily chart, we can see ITA has actually been an underperformer in recent years compared to the broader stock market. But that may be changing.

The recent outperformance in January could just be the beginning. When a sector starts flexing relative strength after lagging, it often signals a major trend shift—the kind that fund managers and institutions pay attention to.

Stock Spotlight: SPR – A Hidden Gem in Aerospace

One stock that recently popped up on our EquityScout scan is Spirit AeroSystems (SPR). And it’s not just another name in the space—this one has some serious technical confluence.

Here’s what makes SPR interesting:

1. Multi-Year Base Formation – The bigger the base, the bigger the breakout.

2. Major Resistance Confluence – The ATH Anchored VWAP, a long-term downtrend resistance trend line , and the base breakout level are all converging at the same price.

3. Clear Trade Levels – If SPR reclaims that ATH AVWAP, it signals that buyers are back in control. We’re watching for longs above that trendline breakout, targeting a move back to $48.

Bottom Line: The Market’s Next Leaders May Not Be What You Expect

While most traders and investors are glued to AI stocks and the latest market drama, Aerospace stocks are quietly breaking out. ITA’s relative strength and bullish technical setup suggest this trend could have legs.

SPR is just one stock that’s setting up, but there are plenty of other opportunities within the industry. Keep Aerospace on your radar—because while the world is panicking about Deepseek and Nvidia, the real money might be taking flight elsewhere. 🚀

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