Everyone's Wrong About September Seasonality

September: The Month Wall Street Loves to Hate.

It's all anyone's talking about right now. The September Effect. The historically worst month for stocks. Market pundits are pulling out their dusty charts showing how the S&P 500 has averaged a decline of 1.2% during September since 1928.

They're pointing to the 55% probability of negative returns, the nine worst monthly losses that occurred in September, and all the usual suspects behind the seasonal weakness.

They're missing the point entirely.

While everyone else is running scared from September seasonality, we've already delivered nearly 100% returns on two options trades in just the first two trading days of the month. Let me tell you how we turned their fear into our profit.

The Real Problem with Seasonality Analysis

Here's what drives me crazy about how most people approach seasonality: they use it as a reason to avoid the market entirely. They see charts like Ryan Detrick's showing "September is historically weak" and think that means every stock is destined to fall.

Don't get me wrong – Ryan's data is spot-on. We’re huge fans. The September Effect is real, and his historical analysis is valuable. But here's where average investors get it wrong: they see this information and get spooked out of the market entirely, missing the bigger opportunity.

That's not how markets work. That's not how seasonality works.

The secret isn't avoiding September – it's knowing which stocks historically perform well IN September.

Remember our August results? While most investors were playing it safe with broad market exposure due to August’s weak historical seasonality, our seasonality analysis delivered a 71% win rate and 12.27% portfolio returns. And that was just buy-and-hold with no leverage, no expert analysis, no tactical positioning.

Now imagine what happens when we add all three.

Introducing the Seasonality Dashboard: Fresh Opportunities Every Month

This is where our new Seasonality Playbook and dashboard change everything. Instead of broad market doom-and-gloom, we filtered over 1,000+ optionable stocks and identified which ones have 80% win rates or higher for specific months over the past 10 years.

The dashboard lets you filter by month to see exactly which stocks have the best historical performance. For September – yes, the "terrible" September – we found stocks like HD with a 90% win rate over the past decade.

HD's September performance through our dashboard:

• 90% win rate for September over 10 years

• One of the stock's historically strongest months

• Perfect setup for tactical options positioning
  

Trade Setup #1: HD Bull Flag Breakout – One Day 75% Return

On Wednesday morning, we identified a textbook bull flag formation on HD's 2-hour chart. A bullish continuation pattern above a successful base breakout. The setup was beautiful: the pivot high anchored VWAP aligned perfectly with trendline resistance, and we were looking for a long position on the trendline breakout.

Early Wednesday morning, the chart delivered exactly what we were looking for – a bullish engulfing outside bar candlestick, typically a strong continuation signal. We immediately alerted members with a specific call options trade idea.

The result? The breakout happened.

Our HD September calls gained nearly 75% in a single day swing trade. This wasn't luck – this was the power of combining seasonal intelligence with expert technical analysis and leveraged positioning through options.

Trade Setup #2: MBLY Trendline Breakout – 100% Same-Day Gains

The second setup showcased our multi-timeframe approach perfectly. MBLY had been forming a solid base on the daily chart, which put it high on our priority radar.

During pre-market hours Thursday, we noticed the 1-hour timeframe was setting up for a trendline breakout. Here's where tactical flexibility matters: while our original analysis focused on the daily timeframe, we identified an opportunity for aggressive traders to enter early on the 1-hour breakout, positioning for the larger daily chart move.

The breakout was explosive.

The result: approximately 100% gains the same day we entered the trade. The 1-hour breakout led to the exact daily chart breakout we were anticipating, and our expert analysis enabled us to capture the move from the very beginning.

Why Our Approach Works When Others Fail

Here's the difference between what we do and what everyone else is doing wrong:

Traditional Seasonality Thinking:

• "September is historically weak, avoid stocks"

• Broad market generalizations

• Fear-based decision making

• Miss individual stock opportunities

Our Seasonality Intelligence:

• Fresh basket of high-probability stocks every month

• Historical 80%+ win rates for specific stocks in specific months

• Expert technical analysis for tactical entries/exits

• Options leverage to define risk and maximize returns

While the talking heads are warning about the September Effect, we're using our dashboard to identify stocks like HD that have 90% September win rates. Then we apply technical analysis to time our entries. Then we use options to amplify returns while defining risk.

That's how you turn market fear into trading profits.

The Numbers Don't Lie

Let's be clear about what we've accomplished:

August (Basic Buy-and-Hold):

• 71% success rate

• 12.27% portfolio return

• No leverage, no tactical analysis

September (Expert Analysis + Options):

• Nearly 100% returns on two trades

• In just the first two trading days of the month

• Using options to define risk and maximize profit potential

September Dashboard Deep Dive

The dashboard isn't just about finding stocks – it's about understanding WHY they work. Each ticker includes:

• Month-by-month seasonality breakdown

• Details button showing historical performance by month

• Charts tab for quick technical analysis

• Win rate percentages for each month over 10 years

For HD, the dashboard clearly shows September as one of the stock's historically strongest months. We take that bullish seasonality edge and combine it with technical analysis to find our market edge.

The Fresh Basket Advantage

This is what gets me excited about our approach: every month brings a completely fresh opportunity set. We're not married to the same stocks or the same strategies. When August ends, we move to September's highest-probability names. When September ends, we'll have October's list ready.

You don't have to trade every name on the list. But when they present favorable setups based on our technical analysis, we act decisively. The dashboard gives us the seasonal edge, technical analysis provides the timing, and options deliver the leverage.

It's systematic. It's repeatable. And it works.

What This Means for You

While everyone else is paralyzed by September seasonal fears, we're already proving there's a better way. The combination of our Seasonality Playbook, expert technical analysis, and strategic options positioning is delivering the exact results we promised.

This is just the beginning.

Every month brings new opportunities. Every seasonal pattern creates new possibilities. Every technical setup offers new profit potential.

The question isn't whether seasonality works. The question is whether you're going to keep following the crowd's flawed approach or join the traders who are already profiting from the seasonal intelligence edge.

Ready to Stop Being Wrong About Seasonality?

Join Our Private Trading Community Today

Get exclusive access to:

✅ Complete Seasonality Dashboard – Filter 300+ stocks by monthly win rates
✅ Monthly Seasonality Playbook – Fresh high-probability stock lists every month
✅ Expert Technical Analysis – Professional chart analysis and trade setups
✅ Real-Time Options Alerts – Tactical trade ideas with defined risk/reward
✅ Live Discord Community – Direct access to our analysis team and fellow traders
✅ Performance Tracking – Transparent results and ongoing education

While Wall Street fears September, we're delivering nearly 100% option returns.

While others avoid seasonality, we're using it as our edge.

While the crowd follows outdated thinking, we're writing the new playbook.

Don't wait for October. The September opportunities are happening right now.

The market rewards preparation. Seasonality analysis provides the preparation advantage. Expert technical analysis delivers the timing edge. Options leverage creates the profit opportunity.

Stop being wrong about seasonality. Start being right about profits.

Until next time,

Investment Intelligence

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